The New Norm

If you're in the business of comparing housing markets month-to-month, you might have been taken aback by the change in Burlingame's real estate figures for November. According to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors (SAMCAR), homes in the City of Trees suffered a 12 percent decline in value between October and November, a precipitous drop – unless you look at the stats for the months preceding October. November's $1.153 million average was much more in line with figures from September, August and July than October's $1.33 million.

October was an anomaly, which is a depressing statement about the Burlingame market. Things aren't what they used to be. Back in the heady days of the real estate bubble – you remember 2007? -- when you couldn't get into a two-bedroom place in Burlingame Terrace for less than $1.2 million, all it took to sell a house was a sign with a realtor's name on it. Hammer that sucker into the ground, open the front door, then get out of the way while 100 eager would-be buyers elbow each other aside for your attention.

But lets be honest; it hasn't been that way in Burlingame for a long time. Last winter, in particular, was a bad stretch. For awhile, I stopped going to Burlingame open houses because nothing was turning over. Every weekend, it was the same thing. It's gotten better since then.

It's gotten better precisely because those $1.2 million two-bedroom Burlingame Terrace bungalows now sell for $1 million – and less.

Burlingame's problem in 2010 has been that the recovery – such as it was –focused on homes priced in the "sweet spot" for the increased conforming loan limit (up to $729,000) and the Federal first-time buyer rebate. For several months, the Peninsula market hummed along, driven by homes in the $700,000 - $900,000 range, enough for a small condo close to the freeway in Burlingame, unfortunately.

Ah, but that's no longer true. On Tuesday, I checked the MLS for Burlingame and found 31 listings priced under $1 million. Roughly half are single-family homes. All but one are located east of El Camino Real. About half are east of California Drive, in neighborhoods like Lyon Hoag and Burlingame Gardens. I mean, come on; it's not Stockton. They're not giving away four-bedroom Tudors in Easton Addition or anything. But "affordable" Burlingame definitely has a new look.

If you get past average price, Burlingame's done pretty well recently. November's 21 sales were a 23 percent increase from October – and from November 2009 (when , incidentally, the local average home sold for around $1.05 million). For the third quarter of 2010, 61 homes changed hands in Burlingame, down 2 percent from 2009's total of 62.

The next big crossroads comes after Jan. 1. December is a notoriously slow season for Burlingame real estate, despite the small but fierce number of buyers, sellers and agents who sing the praises of December, the only time of year blessedly free of lookie-loos and inflexible sellers. That may be true, but the fact is come January, available inventory everywhere – not just in Burlingame – will increase by as much as 25 percent. How those new listings, be they sub-$1 million or $2 million and above, perform could set a tone for the entire year.

So right about the end of January, start committing to memory the addresses of homes for sale. If they stay pretty much the same for a couple of months, that won't mean six more weeks of winter; it'll mean a potentially stagnant market in 2011. If last year is any indicator, though, you should see turnover among the El Camino Real open house signs – especially the ones pointing east.